A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
